Super League (Greece) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · NPS Volos vs Panathinaikos
Likeliest: Panathinaikos win · 74%
Likely score: 1–2
A 74% away win. The market says 69%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NPS Volos8%12%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Panathinaikos74%69%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 88% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 15% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NPS Volos
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at APO Levadiakos (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Aris Thessaloniki (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v AEK Athens (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at PS Kalamata (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · at Olympiacos FC (A)2-3
Panathinaikos
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Asteras Aktor (H)5-1
- Oct 15 · v FK Borac Banja Luka (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Olympiacos FC (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at PS Kalamata (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at AE Kifisia (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | NPS Volos | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.