PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:30 · NŠ Mura vs NK Nafta Lendava 1903
Likeliest: NŠ Mura win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NŠ Mura44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
NK Nafta Lendava 190328%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NŠ Mura
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at NK Olimpija Ljubljana (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v NK Celje (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v NK Aluminij Kidričevo (H)1-6
- Sep 6 · at NK Maribor (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · at NK Bravo (A)0-2
NK Nafta Lendava 1903
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v NK Bravo (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Koper (A)0-2
- Sep 11 · at Brinje Grosuplje (A)2-1
- Sep 4 · v Kalcer Radomlje (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · v NK Maribor (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | NŠ Mura | NK Nafta Lendava 1903 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.