Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:30 · Ñublense vs Coquimbo Unido
Likeliest: Coquimbo Unido win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ñublense30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Coquimbo Unido39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ñublense
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 12 · at Universidad de Chile (A)0-6
- Sep 12 · v Everton de Viña del Mar (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Deportes La Serena (A)1-2
- Sep 3 · at Deportes Limache (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Deportes Concepción (H)0-1
Coquimbo Unido
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Colo Colo (H)5-2
- Sep 12 · at Cobresal (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · at Universidad de Chile (A)2-4
- Sep 2 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Huachipato (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ñublense | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 2-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.