Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy
Likeliest: Nueva Chicago win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nueva Chicago38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+3
OursMarket
Gimnasia Jujuy29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nueva Chicago
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Temperley (A)1-2
- Oct 5 · v Deportivo Maipú (H)0-1
- Sep 27 · at Almagro (A)1-0
- Sep 21 · v Patronato (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Colegiales (A)0-1
Gimnasia Jujuy
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Temperley (A)1-2
- Sep 28 · v San Martín de Tucumán (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Maipú (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Atlético de Rafaela (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Nueva Chicago | Gimnasia Jujuy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.