Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Nueva Chicago vs San Martín de San Juan
Likeliest: draw · 37%
Likely score: 1–1
We make it 47% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nueva Chicago33%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw37%33%+4
OursMarket
San Martín de San Juan31%31%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nueva Chicago
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Gimnasia Jujuy (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Temperley (A)1-2
- Oct 5 · v Deportivo Maipú (H)0-1
- Sep 27 · at Almagro (A)1-0
- Sep 21 · v Patronato (H)1-1
San Martín de San Juan
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Temperley (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Maipú (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Almagro (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Patronato (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Colegiales (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Nueva Chicago | San Martín de San Juan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 1-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.