USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 11 · 02:00 · Oakland Roots SC vs San Antonio FC
Likeliest: San Antonio FC win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oakland Roots SC35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
San Antonio FC36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oakland Roots SC
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 4 · at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Indy Eleven (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Lexington SC (H)1-4
- Aug 30 · v Orange County SC (H)1-1
San Antonio FC
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 4 · at Las Vegas Lights (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Tulsa (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Oakland Roots SC | San Antonio FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-4 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.