1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Odds BK vs Bryne FK
Likeliest: Odds BK win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Odds BK44%47%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Bryne FK29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Odds BK
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Hødd IL (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · v Egersund (H)5-1
- Sep 16 · at Notodden FK (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · at Raufoss (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Strømsgodset (H)1-1
Bryne FK
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 4 · v Lyn FK (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Åsane (A)4-0
- Sep 16 · at IL Bjarg (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Stabæk Fotball (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Strømmen IF (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Odds BK | Bryne FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-2 | 6-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.