1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Odds BK vs Strømmen IF
Likeliest: Odds BK win · 64%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 73% for both teams to score. The market says 66%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Odds BK64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Strømmen IF17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | 66% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Odds BK
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 14 · at Sogndal IL (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Bryne FK (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Hødd IL (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · v Egersund (H)5-1
- Sep 16 · at Notodden FK (A)3-2
Strømmen IF
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 14 · v Åsane (H)6-1
- Oct 11 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Haugesund (A)2-4
- Sep 13 · at Sogndal IL (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Odds BK | Strømmen IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.