Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · OFI Crete vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 80%
Likely score: 0–1
A 80% away win. The market says 76%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
OFI Crete6%9%−4
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−1
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen80%76%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 20% | 24% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 91% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 7% | 11% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
OFI Crete
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at PS Kalamata (A)3-4
- Oct 15 · at Stade Rennais (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · at AEK Athens (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Asteras Aktor (H)2-2
- Sep 17 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Oct 15 · at Lech Poznań (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)4-3
- Sep 20 · v RB Leipzig (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v NK Celje (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | OFI Crete | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.