Super League (Greece) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:00 · OFI Crete vs PAOK
Likeliest: PAOK win · 59%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
OFI Crete16%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
PAOK59%55%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 45% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
OFI Crete
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at PS Kalamata (A)3-4
- Oct 15 · at Stade Rennais (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · at AEK Athens (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Asteras Aktor (H)2-2
- Sep 17 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-0
PAOK
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Iraklis 1908 (H)2-1
- Oct 12 · v PS Kalamata (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Panetolikos (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · at Atromitos Athens (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Aris Thessaloniki (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | OFI Crete | PAOK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.