Superliga (Serbia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:00 · OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena zvezda
Likeliest: FK Crvena zvezda win · 70%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
OFK Beograd12%8%+4
OursMarket
Draw18%15%+3
OursMarket
FK Crvena zvezda70%77%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 66% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 49% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 31% | 23% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 92% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 85% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 9% | +5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
OFK Beograd
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at FK Mačva Šabac (A)1-1
- Oct 12 · at FK Mladost Lučani (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FK Radnički 1923 (H)3-5
- Sep 13 · at FK Radnički Niš (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v FK IMT Beograd (H)1-1
FK Crvena zvezda
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v FK Mladost Lučani (H)5-1
- Oct 15 · at FC Lugano (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at FK Radnički 1923 (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FK Radnički Niš (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at FK Železničar Pančevo (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | OFK Beograd | FK Crvena zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | 5-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.