Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Fri, Jul 31 · 00:30 · O'Higgins vs Boca Juniors
Likeliest: Boca Juniors win · 42%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
O'Higgins27%23%+4
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Boca Juniors42%49%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 41% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 37% | 45% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 32% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
O'Higgins
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Jul 27 · at Deportes Concepción (A)0-2
- Jul 24 · at Boca Juniors (A)0-1
- Jun 19 · at Universidad de Chile (A)0-2
- Jun 13 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)0-0
- May 31 · v Everton de Viña del Mar (H)2-3
Boca Juniors
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Jul 26 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)0-3
- Jul 24 · v O'Higgins (H)1-0
- Jul 17 · at Sarmiento (A)2-0
- May 29 · v Universidad Católica (H)0-1
- May 20 · v Cruzeiro (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | O'Higgins | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.