Primera División (Chile) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:00 · O'Higgins vs Cobresal
Likeliest: O'Higgins win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
O'Higgins59%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Cobresal18%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
O'Higgins
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Huachipato (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Audax Italiano (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Unión La Calera (H)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Universidad Católica (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Palestino (H)0-1
Cobresal
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)3-2
- Sep 7 · at Deportes Limache (A)0-3
- Aug 28 · v Palestino (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Deportes La Serena (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | O'Higgins | Cobresal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.