Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Aug 23 · 23:00 · O'Higgins vs Palestino
Likeliest: O'Higgins win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 40%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
O'Higgins53%40%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Palestino21%33%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 67% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 60% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 54% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
O'Higgins
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 16 · at Colo Colo (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v Deportes Limache (H)1-3
- Aug 2 · at Deportes La Serena (A)2-1
- Jul 31 · v Boca Juniors (H)1-0
- Jul 27 · at Deportes Concepción (A)0-2
Palestino
WinLossWinLossWin
- Aug 18 · v Huachipato (H)5-1
- Aug 10 · at Universidad de Chile (A)1-2
- Aug 1 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)2-1
- Jul 26 · at Ñublense (A)0-2
- Jun 13 · at Everton de Viña del Mar (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | O'Higgins | Palestino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.