J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Oita Trinita vs Albirex Niigata
Likeliest: Albirex Niigata win · 36%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oita Trinita32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Albirex Niigata36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oita Trinita
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Yokohama FC (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)0-0
Albirex Niigata
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Oita Trinita | Albirex Niigata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.