J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 05:00 · Oita Trinita vs Vanraure Hachinohe
Likeliest: Oita Trinita win · 44%
Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 11%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oita Trinita44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+2
OursMarket
Vanraure Hachinohe25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oita Trinita
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 31 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)0-2
- Oct 25 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)1-1
- Oct 21 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)0-0
- Oct 17 · v Albirex Niigata (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Yokohama FC (A)2-1
Vanraure Hachinohe
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 31 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)1-2
- Oct 25 · at Sagan Tosu (A)0-2
- Oct 21 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)1-0
- Oct 17 · at FC Imabari (A)3-3
- Oct 10 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Oita Trinita | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-7-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-1 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.