League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Oldham Athletic vs Accrington Stanley
Likeliest: Oldham Athletic win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oldham Athletic60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Accrington Stanley17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oldham Athletic
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · v Salford City (H)1-4
- Sep 22 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Rochdale (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Chesterfield (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)0-2
Accrington Stanley
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 6 · v Salford City (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Cheltenham Town (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Swindon Town (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Sunderland U21 (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · v Newport County (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Oldham Athletic | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.