League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town
Likeliest: Oldham Athletic win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Oldham Athletic55%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Cheltenham Town20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Oldham Athletic
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 13 · v Leeds United U21 (H)4-2
- Oct 10 · v Accrington Stanley (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Salford City (H)1-4
- Sep 22 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Rochdale (A)0-2
Cheltenham Town
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 13 · v Tottenham U21 (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · v Salford City (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Accrington Stanley (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Chesterfield (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · v Exeter City (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Oldham Athletic | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.