Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Thu, Aug 20 · 22:00 · Olimpia vs Vasco da Gama
Likeliest: Olimpia win · 54%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olimpia54%39%+15
OursMarket
Draw22%30%−8
OursMarket
Vasco da Gama25%31%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 42% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 49% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 61% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 70% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 56% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olimpia
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 13 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-0
- May 27 · v Audax Italiano (H)3-1
- May 20 · v Vasco da Gama (H)3-1
- May 7 · at Barracas Central (A)2-1
- Apr 30 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-3
Vasco da Gama
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 16 · v Santos (H)0-3
- Aug 13 · v Olimpia (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Bahia (A)0-0
- Aug 6 · at Fluminense (A)3-1
- Aug 1 · v Fluminense (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Olimpia | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.