Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Olympiacos FC vs AC Sparta Praha
Likeliest: Olympiacos FC win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympiacos FC61%60%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
AC Sparta Praha16%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 40% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympiacos FC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Panetolikos (A)2-0
- Oct 15 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Panathinaikos (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at APO Levadiakos (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-1
AC Sparta Praha
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at Baník Ostrava (A)0-0
- Oct 15 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · v FK Pardubice (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at SK Sigma Olomouc (A)3-0
- Sep 16 · at FC Ararat-Armenia (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Olympiacos FC | AC Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.