Europa League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 16 · 19:00 · Olympiacos FC vs Jagiellonia Białystok
Likeliest: Olympiacos FC win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympiacos FC71%69%+1
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
Jagiellonia Białystok11%11%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 89% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 31% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympiacos FC
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v OFI Crete (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · v NPS Volos (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at NPS Volos (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · at AE Larisa (A)4-0
- Aug 30 · at Asteras Aktor (A)1-0
Jagiellonia Białystok
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 11 · at Wisła Kraków (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)2-1
- Sep 3 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)5-2
- Aug 27 · at FC Iberia 1999 (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Olympiacos FC | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.