Super League (Greece) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · Olympiacos FC vs PS Kalamata
Likeliest: Olympiacos FC win · 88%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 88% for the home win. The market says 84%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympiacos FC88%84%+4
OursMarket
Draw9%11%−2
OursMarket
PS Kalamata3%5%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 33% | 34% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 95% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 12% | 16% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 97% | 95% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympiacos FC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Panetolikos (A)2-0
- Oct 15 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Panathinaikos (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at APO Levadiakos (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-1
PS Kalamata
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v OFI Crete (H)4-3
- Oct 12 · at PAOK (A)3-1
- Sep 20 · v Panathinaikos (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · v AE Larisa (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v NPS Volos (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Olympiacos FC | PS Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.