Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:15 · Olympique de Marseille vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Olympique de Marseille win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique de Marseille63%60%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Le Havre16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique de Marseille
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Angers (A)5-2
- Oct 15 · v Olympiacos FC (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Troyes (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v PSG (H)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Beşiktaş (A)1-4
Le Havre
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Auxerre (H)1-3
- Oct 10 · at Lille (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Toulouse (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Angers (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Stade Brestois (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Olympique de Marseille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.