Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Sep 6 · 18:45 · Olympique de Marseille vs Paris FC
Likeliest: Paris FC win · 48%
We make it 74% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique de Marseille32%54%−23
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
Paris FC48%22%+27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 74% | 58% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 78% | −27 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 46% | +23 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 72% | −32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique de Marseille
WinLoss
- Aug 30 · at AS Monaco (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · v RC Strasbourg (H)4-0
Paris FC
DrawWin
- Aug 30 · v Nice (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Troyes (A)0-0