Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Sep 20 · 18:45 · Olympique de Marseille vs PSG
Likeliest: PSG win · 74%
A 74% away win. The market says 69%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique de Marseille10%13%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
PSG74%69%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 87% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 12% | 16% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique de Marseille
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 17 · at Beşiktaş (A)1-4
- Sep 11 · at Stade Rennais (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Paris FC (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at AS Monaco (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · v RC Strasbourg (H)4-0
PSG
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Stade Brestois (A)1-0
- Sep 9 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)6-1
- Sep 4 · v AS Monaco (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Lille (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Stade Rennais (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Olympique de Marseille | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-0-4 | 3-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.