Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Aug 21 · 18:45 · Olympique de Marseille vs RC Strasbourg
Likeliest: Olympique de Marseille win · 51%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique de Marseille51%55%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
RC Strasbourg27%22%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 78% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 72% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.