Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Aug 11 · 19:00 · Olympique Lyonnais vs AC Sparta Praha
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 42%
A 33% away win. The market says 16%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais42%63%−21
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+4
OursMarket
AC Sparta Praha33%16%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 51% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 84% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 37% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 80% | −24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 4 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Lens (H)0-4
- May 10 · at Toulouse (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Rennes (H)4-2
- Apr 25 · v Auxerre (H)3-2
AC Sparta Praha
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 8 · at Mladá Boleslav (A)0-2
- Aug 4 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-1
- Jul 31 · v FC Zlín (H)3-1
- Jul 25 · at FC Zbrojovka Brno (A)1-3
- May 24 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | AC Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.