Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 25 · 13:00 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 54%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais54%58%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Auxerre20%18%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 51% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 76% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Apr 19 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-1
- Apr 12 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Apr 5 · at Angers SCO (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Mar 19 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-2
Auxerre
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 19 · at Monaco (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Nantes (H)0-0
- Apr 5 · at Le Havre (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Brest (H)3-0
- Mar 13 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.