Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Jan 18 · 19:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Brest
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 60%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Brest19%19%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 11 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-1
- Jan 3 · at Monaco (A)3-1
- Dec 21 · v Saint-Cyr Collonges (H)3-0
- Dec 14 · v Le Havre (H)1-0
- Dec 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
Brest
WinWinWinLossWin
- Jan 4 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Rennes (A)1-3
- Dec 5 · v Monaco (H)1-0
- Nov 30 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Nov 23 · v Metz (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.