Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 19 · 17:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 48%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais48%44%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−4
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo28%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 46% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 62% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Mar 15 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Mar 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-3
- Feb 22 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
Celta de Vigo
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Mar 15 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Mar 12 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-1
- Mar 6 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at Girona (A)2-1
- Feb 26 · v PAOK (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.