Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Crystal Palace31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at RC Lens (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Stade Rennais (H)4-0
- Sep 16 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Paris FC (A)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Auxerre (H)3-1
Crystal Palace
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Lech Poznań (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-3
- Sep 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.