Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Aug 26 · 19:00 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Fenerbahçe
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 46%
We make it 61% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais46%49%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
Fenerbahçe30%25%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 53% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 75% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 67% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 22 · at Toulouse (A)2-0
- Aug 18 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · v AC Sparta Praha (H)3-0
- Aug 4 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Lens (H)0-4
Fenerbahçe
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 22 · v Konyaspor (H)4-2
- Aug 18 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)1-2
- Aug 11 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-0
- Aug 5 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.