Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Dec 14 · 14:00 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 57%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais57%57%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−3
OursMarket
Le Havre22%18%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 76% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Dec 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Lorient (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · v Nantes (H)3-0
- Nov 27 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)6-0
- Nov 23 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
Le Havre
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Dec 7 · v Paris (H)0-0
- Nov 30 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-1
- Nov 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Nov 8 · v Nantes (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at Toulouse (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.