Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Aug 29 · 18:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 65%
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais65%65%0
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−2
OursMarket
Le Havre15%14%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 54% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 86% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 82% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 26 · v Fenerbahçe (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Toulouse (A)2-0
- Aug 18 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · v AC Sparta Praha (H)3-0
- Aug 4 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)1-2
Le Havre
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Aug 23 · v AS Monaco (H)0-1
- May 17 · at Lorient (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
- May 3 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v Metz (H)4-4
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.