Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 17 · 19:00 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais50%54%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Lens25%23%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 70% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinWinWinLoss
- May 10 · at Toulouse (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Rennes (H)4-2
- Apr 25 · v Auxerre (H)3-2
- Apr 19 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-1
- Apr 12 · v Lorient (H)2-0
Lens
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- May 13 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-2
- May 8 · v Nantes (H)1-0
- May 2 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · at Brest (A)3-3
- Apr 21 · v Toulouse (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.