Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 12 · 18:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Lorient
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 55%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais55%58%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Lorient22%18%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 52% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 82% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 76% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 5 · at Angers SCO (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Mar 19 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Mar 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-1
Lorient
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Apr 5 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Toulouse (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Lens (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.