Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 1 · 14:00 · Olympique Lyonnais vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 56%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais56%45%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
LOSC Lille21%28%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 51% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 55% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 62% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 29 · v PAOK (H)4-2
- Jan 25 · at Metz (A)5-2
- Jan 22 · at Young Boys (A)1-0
- Jan 18 · v Brest (H)2-1
- Jan 11 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-1
LOSC Lille
LossLossLossLossWin
- Jan 29 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-0
- Jan 25 · v Strasbourg (H)1-4
- Jan 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-2
- Jan 16 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Jan 11 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.