Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 22 · 14:00 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Monaco
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 35%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais53%35%+18
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Monaco24%38%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 62% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 65% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 48% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Mar 19 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Le Havre (A)0-0
- Mar 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-3
Monaco
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 14 · v Brest (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
- Feb 25 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-2
- Feb 21 · at Lens (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.