Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 30 · 19:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Nantes
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 56%
A 20% away win. The market says 13%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais56%67%−11
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+4
OursMarket
Nantes20%13%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 87% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 33% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 84% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Nov 27 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)6-0
- Nov 23 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Nov 9 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
- Nov 6 · at Real Betis (A)0-2
- Nov 2 · at Brest (A)0-0
Nantes
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Nov 23 · v Lorient (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · at Le Havre (A)1-1
- Nov 2 · v Metz (H)0-2
- Oct 29 · v Monaco (H)3-5
- Oct 24 · at Paris (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.