Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 15 · 19:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Nice
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 53%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais62%53%+9
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Nice17%22%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 47% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 71% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 7 · at Nantes (A)1-0
- Feb 4 · v Laval (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-0
- Jan 29 · v PAOK (H)4-2
- Jan 25 · at Metz (A)5-2
Nice
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Feb 8 · v Monaco (H)0-0
- Feb 4 · v Montpellier (H)3-2
- Feb 1 · v Brest (H)2-2
- Jan 29 · at Ludogorets (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · at Nantes (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 10-0-0 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.