Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 3 · 18:45 · Olympique Lyonnais vs Rennes
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 45%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Lyonnais55%45%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Rennes21%30%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 60% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 62% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 70% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 55% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 60% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Lyonnais
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Auxerre (H)3-2
- Apr 19 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-1
- Apr 12 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Apr 5 · at Angers SCO (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Monaco (H)1-2
Rennes
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Apr 26 · v Nantes (H)2-1
- Apr 19 · at Strasbourg (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Angers SCO (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Brest (A)4-3
- Mar 22 · v Metz (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Lyonnais | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.