Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Mar 13 · 19:45 · Olympique Marseille vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 57%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille57%65%−8
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Auxerre21%14%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 50% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 86% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 35% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 82% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Mar 7 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Mar 1 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-2
- Feb 20 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Strasbourg (H)2-2
- Feb 8 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-5
Auxerre
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Mar 7 · v Strasbourg (H)0-0
- Mar 1 · at Lorient (A)2-2
- Feb 22 · v Rennes (H)0-3
- Feb 15 · at Metz (A)3-1
- Feb 8 · v Paris (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.