Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Jan 24 · 20:05 · Olympique Marseille vs Lens
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 40%
A 34% away win. The market says 27%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille40%47%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Lens34%27%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 73% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 63% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Jan 21 · v Liverpool (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at Angers SCO (A)5-2
- Jan 13 · at Bayeux (A)9-0
- Jan 4 · v Nantes (H)0-2
- Dec 21 · at Bourg-en-Bresse (A)6-0
Lens
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 17 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
- Jan 11 · at Sochaux (A)3-0
- Jan 2 · at Toulouse (A)3-0
- Dec 19 · v Feignies-Aulnoye (H)3-1
- Dec 14 · v Nice (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 10-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.