Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 22 · 16:15 · Olympique Marseille vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille50%49%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
LOSC Lille26%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 67% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Mar 13 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Mar 1 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-2
- Feb 20 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Strasbourg (H)2-2
LOSC Lille
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Mar 19 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Rennes (A)2-1
- Mar 12 · v Aston Villa (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Lorient (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Nantes (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Olympique Marseille form·LOSC Lille form·Head-to-head record