Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Apr 10 · 19:05 · Olympique Marseille vs Metz
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 75%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille75%77%−2
OursMarket
Draw16%15%+1
OursMarket
Metz9%9%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 68% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 91% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 23% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 85% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 90% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 5 · at Monaco (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
- Mar 13 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Mar 1 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-2
Metz
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 5 · v Nantes (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at Rennes (A)0-0
- Mar 15 · v Toulouse (H)3-4
- Mar 8 · at Lens (A)0-3
- Mar 1 · v Brest (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.