Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Dec 14 · 19:45 · Olympique Marseille vs Monaco
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 45%
A 33% away win. The market says 26%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille45%49%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Monaco33%26%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 64% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 74% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 65% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 9 · at Union Saint-Gilloise (A)3-2
- Dec 5 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
- Nov 25 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
- Nov 21 · at Nice (A)5-1
Monaco
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Dec 9 · v Galatasaray (H)1-0
- Dec 5 · at Brest (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-0
- Nov 26 · at Pafos FC (A)2-2
- Nov 22 · at Rennes (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.