Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Jan 4 · 14:00 · Olympique Marseille vs Nantes
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 70%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille70%77%−7
OursMarket
Draw18%15%+3
OursMarket
Nantes12%8%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 63% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 92% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 23% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 85% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 90% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Dec 21 · at Bourg-en-Bresse (A)6-0
- Dec 14 · v Monaco (H)1-0
- Dec 9 · at Union Saint-Gilloise (A)3-2
- Dec 5 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
Nantes
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Dec 21 · at Concarneau (A)5-3
- Dec 12 · at Angers SCO (A)1-4
- Dec 6 · v Lens (H)1-2
- Nov 30 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-3
- Nov 23 · v Lorient (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.