Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 26 · 18:45 · Olympique Marseille vs Nice
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 62%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille62%62%0
OursMarket
Draw21%20%0
OursMarket
Nice17%17%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 83% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 38% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 78% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 18 · at Lorient (A)0-2
- Apr 10 · v Metz (H)3-1
- Apr 5 · at Monaco (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
- Mar 13 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
Nice
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Apr 22 · at Strasbourg (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-0
- Apr 12 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.