Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 1 · 19:45 · Olympique Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 43%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille43%47%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais33%26%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 51% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 74% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 53% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 65% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Feb 20 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Strasbourg (H)2-2
- Feb 8 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-5
- Feb 3 · v Rennes (H)3-0
- Jan 31 · at Paris (A)2-2
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 22 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Feb 15 · v Nice (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · at Nantes (A)1-0
- Feb 4 · v Laval (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Olympique Marseille form·Olympique Lyonnais form·Head-to-head record