Coupe de France (France) · Tue, Feb 3 · 20:10 · Olympique Marseille vs Rennes
Likeliest: Olympique Marseille win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Olympique Marseille56%59%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Rennes22%19%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 76% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Olympique Marseille
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Jan 31 · at Paris (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Club Brugge (A)0-3
- Jan 24 · v Lens (H)3-1
- Jan 21 · v Liverpool (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at Angers SCO (A)5-2
Rennes
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Jan 31 · at Monaco (A)0-4
- Jan 24 · v Lorient (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at US Chantilly (A)3-1
- Jan 3 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Olympique Marseille | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.